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Survivorship Bias - Chapter 27

Published at 5th of June 2024 06:56:46 AM


Chapter 27

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Chapter 27: Caged bird, who is the birdcatcher behind you?


After the game rules were announced, a giant one-minute countdown timer appeared directly above the birdcage.

An Wujiu stood in place, observing the other players. Various expressions of confusion appeared on their faces, to varying degrees.

This was quite normal because, when you hear such game rules for the first time, it’s natural to feel perplexed.

Among various conditions, as a bird in the cage, one could not determine who was standing behind them through sound, nor could they leave the platform or reach out to touch anyone.

Moreover, the most random aspect was that the bird’s eyes were blindfolded even before people outside the cage stepped onto the platform and confirmed their order. The bird couldn’t see anything.

The smell was also not reliable, as the distance between platforms was not great. Even if someone had a distinct scent, it wouldn’t help determine if they were right behind them.

However, perhaps because this was just a warm-up game, the best solution was taken. Apart from the first place, there was really no difference between the other players. There was no danger of death or elimination.

So, from the expressions of everyone, there didn’t seem to be much anxiety.

An Wujiu turned his head slightly and looked at Shen Ti.

As a result, Shen Ti was the first to notice, and he turned his head, making a scissors hand gesture near his eye, signaling to him.

As expected of him.

One minute passed very quickly.

“The game is about to begin, and by the way, I want to remind everyone that no player is allowed to use violence to force another player off the platform; otherwise, it will be considered a foul, and their qualification for the warm-up game will be canceled.”

“The first round begins. Please, if any player is willing to take on the role of the caged bird, raise your hand. You have 30 seconds. If no player comes forward, everyone will lose 5 points.”

The countdown began again.

It seemed that everyone chose to stay still without any coordination.

The role of the caged bird was quite different from the other roles in terms of scoring; it involved high risk and high reward. If the bird correctly guessed the person behind them, they would gain ten points. However, if they failed, they would lose five points, and only the bird could potentially lose points.

In addition, success was not easy. Based on probability, it seemed the bird had only a one-sixth chance of guessing the person who had moved directly behind them.

For the bird, that was indeed the case, An Wujiu thought.

But for the people outside the cage, especially the birdcatchers, it was a different story.

This game, in fact, was a battle between the caged bird and the birdcatchers.

“Last five seconds.”

An Wujiu raised his hand.

He noticed that at the same time he raised his hand, Shen Ti’s hand also moved up slightly but then seemed to give up.

An Wujiu couldn’t quite fathom why Shen Ti chose to back down. Maybe he hadn’t made up his mind yet, but that didn’t seem like his character. It was more likely that he raised his hand casually, thinking no one else would volunteer, and then withdrew when someone else raised their hand first.

“The countdown has ended.”

“Player An Wujiu has chosen to be the bird in the cage for the first round. Please enter the cage and stand on the circular platform, facing the cage door.”

Following the instructions, An Wujiu opened the door of the birdcage, stepped inside, and stood on the circular platform. He faced the door, with the number 1 on the platform in front of him and the number 4 on the platform behind him, clockwise from 1 to 6.

In other words, the player who moved to stand behind him must be at platform number 4.

Just as he finished noting the numbers, a four-inch-wide red velvet ribbon suddenly appeared at the top of the golden birdcage and floated down in front of An Wujiu.

“Please blindfold the bird in the cage.”

So he raised his hand, grabbed the ribbon, and covered his eyes, tying it securely.

Shen Ti stared at An Wujiu inside the cage. In the dim light, his face appeared even paler, the dark red velvet against his lips, his wrists wrapped in white gauze, his slender shoulders, all ensnared in the ornate cage.

For an instant, he had a strange sensation in his mind.

For the first time, he felt that a scene or picture could be considered beautiful.

Shen Ti had never truly perceived this before.

He had come to the Holy Altar and witnessed people mourning their loved ones, but he stood motionless, with a face behind a mask that wasn’t cold but filled with confusion.

He didn’t understand why they were crying.

Similarly, he didn’t comprehend the immense joy people experienced when they won, but he found it intriguing. So he would learn, although sometimes it seemed like he used it incorrectly, reacting with joy in situations that should have elicited sadness, making others see him as peculiar.

Even the gesture of patting An Wujiu on the shoulder moments ago was something he had learned from the two children he had encountered.

However, he didn’t care about the result. He believed he was special to An Wujiu, so even if he made a mistake, An Wujiu wouldn’t turn away like others.

Shen Ti didn’t find anyone ugly, nor did he consider anyone beautiful. In his eyes, all these diverse people seemed to share a blurry face. So he also couldn’t grasp the significance of the artworks in the castle—the great masterpieces passed down through generations. Even when he looked at them through a magnifying glass, he didn’t find them particularly extraordinary.

When he saw An Wujiu, he felt differently for the first time.

He believed that An Wujiu’s face was not blurry but precise, unlike anyone else’s.

For the first time, he perceived the concept of aesthetics in this unique form.

“The caged bird is ready.”

With his eyes covered, An Wujiu suddenly realized that his hearing had become quite strange. Despite usually being able to pick up the slightest of sounds, he could now only hear the holy voice. Even background noise, footsteps, and breathing were inaudible.

This was probably the system’s way of blocking out other sounds for the caged bird to ensure the smooth operation of the game.

It was really quiet.

He couldn’t even hear the jingling of Shen Ti’s earrings.

“Now, caged bird, please say a number.”

An Wujiu, blindfolded and unable to see anything, thought that the number was unimportant. Even movement didn’t matter.

The ones who truly wanted to catch a bird would come.

So he spoke, casually mentioning a number.

“6.”

“Now, you may begin to move.”

Soon, he heard that ethereal child’s voice again, singing a somewhat chilling song.

Apart from this, An Wujiu really couldn’t gather any external information.

The nursery rhyme abruptly stopped, and the holy voice continued, “The people outside the cage have finished moving.”

“Caged Bird, who is the birdcatcher behind you?”

With his eyes covered, An Wujiu’s lips moved.

“Shen Ti.”

His choice of Shen Ti wasn’t because he wanted to win. Instead, he believed that Shen Ti’s skills were at his level, and just like him, Shen Ti had likely figured out the rules of the game right after they were explained.

If there are people with the skills of Shen Ti, this game is not purely based on luck.

“Caged bird, please open your eyes and look behind you.”

Following the holy voice’s instructions, An Wujiu removed the ribbon blindfold and looked back.

He let out a gentle laugh.

It was indeed Shen Ti, and he even tilted his head toward An Wujiu.

“In this round, the caged bird wins. Player An Wujiu gains 10 points, while the others remain at 0 points.”

As he was coming down from the platform, he noticed a puzzled look on the face of the European boy, Josh. He knew that Josh still didn’t understand how this was guessed, especially since he and Shen Ti hadn’t exchanged a single word before he entered the cage.

In this game, there indeed existed an information gap among different players.

One piece of information that An Wujiu had, unlike the new players, was an understanding of Shen Ti, Zhong Yirou, and Wu You’s abilities.

However, this information gap would gradually diminish in the following rounds.

Because this game was called “Caged Bird,” everyone was overly focused on the bird in the cage rather than themselves or the birdcatchers outside.

The bird in the cage had no choice but to guess the person behind them. At first glance, it appeared that the odds of guessing correctly were only 1 in 6.

But the people outside the cage had options.

They could even, at the moment when the bird in the cage called out a number, make their move and become a birdcatcher by calculating the needed platform to occupy.

So, it was more about how to position yourself to become a birdcatcher and not be predicted by the caged bird.

In this reversed perspective, the game was no longer about the “caged bird” but about musical chairs, all vying for the same chair.

An Wujiu and Shen Ti both acknowledged each other’s strength, so he believed that Shen Ti had already understood the hidden implications of the rules and had shifted his position to that of the birdcatcher. When he shouted the number 6, he calculated the platform he needed to occupy, which was platform number 4.

In this way, after six clockwise moves, they completed one full circle, and Shen Ti could successfully stand behind An Wujiu.

For the birdcatchers, the chances of winning were a 50/50. 

Either they succeeded in catching the bird or were guessed by the bird in the cage.

And once clever birdcatchers emerged, the bird in the cage’s chances of winning increased significantly.

All he needed to think was, who could be this clever?

Because the process of choosing a platform gave players significant agency, those who wanted to become birdcatchers would be very quick and agile in finding their positions, greatly reducing uncertainty.

However, An Wujiu was well aware that even though he discovered the reversed rules, Shen Ti might not dare to select him specifically.

This was the part they both had to gamble on.

As long as An Wujiu didn’t dare say Shen Ti’s name, he could gain five points.

But An Wujiu guessed it.

He used the birdcatcher’s desire to win, and in the first round, where everyone didn’t fully grasp the rules, he found the person most likely to seize the birdcatcher’s role.

The holy voice returned.

“The second round begins. The birdcatcher from the first round, please enter the cage and become the new bird in the cage, and blindfold yourself.”

An Wujiu handed the red velvet ribbon to Shen Ti.

In a moment of stillness, their fingertips unintentionally touched.

Shen Ti blindfolded himself efficiently. As An Wujiu stepped outside, now “freed,” he couldn’t help but feel a bit strange.

Although Shen Ti was handsome even with the blindfold, it was true that his most powerful asset was his eyes.

This time, An Wujiu could focus on the other players outside the cage. He didn’t plan to compete for the birdcatcher’s role this round because he was leading by a significant margin, and rushing to stand behind Shen Ti would likely earn Shen Ti an easy ten points.

He wanted to see if there were others who realized the importance of being a birdcatcher.

Shen Ti stood in the cage and, following the holy voice’s instructions, gave a number.

“5.”

In the next moment, An Wujiu, standing still, thought that the birdcatcher should choose platform number 5 as their starting point.

6-1-2-3-4, move five times, and end up behind Shen Ti.

At this moment, he saw a young lady named Yang Erci striding toward platform number 5 and confidently standing on it while others seemed to still be making their choices.

She was really tall, wearing flat shoes, similar in height to Zhong Yirou, who was in high heels.

As An Wujiu observed, Yang Erci also looked at him. So An Wujiu averted his gaze.

Everyone had made their choices, and platform number 1 was left. An Wujiu stood on it. As expected, when he was outside the cage, he could hear the footsteps of others and even the rustling of their clothing.

“Now, you may begin to move.”

That nursery rhyme echoed through the hall once again.

It quickly stopped.

“The people outside the cage have finished moving.”

“Bird in the cage, who is the birdcatcher behind you?”

An Wujiu stared at Shen Ti. Because he was blindfolded, he had to watch Shen Ti’s lips.

For a moment, he wondered if Shen Ti could guess correctly.

But the next moment, he immediately realized that he had an information gap, and Shen Ti might have received this information earlier.

“Yang Erci.”

Sure enough, he guessed correctly.

Following the holy voice’s instructions, Shen Ti removed the blindfold. The first thing he saw was An Wujiu’s calm face. He feld he had a better chance of winning. He then turned around to see his chosen, correct answer.

Back in the first round, when An Wujiu was blindfolded, Shen Ti observed others and found that among all the people outside the cage, only he and Yang Erci had initially moved toward the birdcatcher’s platform, 4. However, Yang Erci seemed to have realized a bit later and took a step in that direction, only to retract her leg when she saw Shen Ti heading there. She paused for a moment and then casually chose a different platform.

So Shen Ti knew that Yang Erci also understood that this was a game for the birdcatcher. In the second round, when he became the bird in the cage, he had two clear options in his mind: An Wujiu and Yang Erci.

An Wujiu, at the moment, was still in his calm and collected state and not the win-at-all-costs An Wujiu, so he would likely use this time to observe others, gather information, and prepare for future rounds.

Therefore, Shen Ti placed his bet on Yang Erci, and unsurprisingly, he received the reward.

“The caed bird won. Player Shen Ti gains 10 points, and the other players score nothing this round.”

“The current scores on the field: Player An Wujiu and Player Shen Ti – 10 points; all other players – 0 points.”

At the midpoint of the game, two players on the field had taken a substantial lead.

In the third round, with Yang Erci as the bird in the cage, the task was to guess the birdcatcher behind her. She blindfolded herself, stood on the platform, and called out the number she wanted everyone to move to.

“2.”

This round, An Wujiu wanted to try and seize the birdcatcher’s platform because he wanted to see who would be disappointed for not getting it.

When An Wujiu quickly stood on platform number 2, he noticed that Zhong Yirou was just one step behind, and her disappointment was evident. She settled for platform number 3 next to An Wujiu and put her hands on her hips, expressing her dissatisfaction with him.

An Wujiu gave a wry smile, as if apologizing.

Shen Ti, on the other hand, stood on platform number 5, but he did so slowly and leisurely after An Wujiu had chosen his platform.

This choice was clever. If the bird in the cage won, Shen Ti wouldn’t suffer any losses. If the bird in the cage lost, he could still receive a 3-point reward. Moreover, he had just faced off with Yang Erci in the previous round, so this time he was one of Yang Erci’s prime suspects.

Thus, Shen Ti’s non-competitive approach fell within An Wujiu’s expectations.

However, just before the nursery rhyme began, a scene of Yang Erci staring at Shen Ti suddenly flashed in his mind.

So, before moving, An Wujiu turned around and made an exchange gesture with Zhong Yirou.

Translator’s Note:

“请君入瓮” is a Chinese idiom that translates to “Please step into the boiling pot/urn” in English. This idiom is often used metaphorically to suggest that someone is walking into a trap or willingly entering a difficult or dangerous situation. It’s used to caution someone about making a potentially unwise or perilous decision.





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